Three Phony Criticisms of Buy-and-Hold

I’m a critic of Buy-and-Hold. I believe that investors MUST change their stock allocations in response to big valuation shifts to have any hope whatsoever of keeping their risk profile roughly constant. I don’t believe that is is possible that a Buy-and-Hold strategy could ever work in the long term. That said, I believe that the Buy-and-Holders […]

How Our Ideas on Stock Investing Got on the Wrong Track

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I say controversial things about stock investing. Most people believe that following a Buy-and-Hold strategy is the way to go. I do not. Buy-and-Hold is rooted in the research of University of Chicago Economics Professor Eugene Fama. I advocate Valuation-Informed Indexing, the investing strategy rooted in the research of Yale Economics Professor Robert Shiller. Shiller’s ideas represent a […]

Is Buy-and-Hold a Liberal or a Conservative Idea?

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Most people will react to the question I pose in the headline with puzzlement. Buy-and-Hold is an investing strategy. It has nothing to do with politics. It’s not liberal OR conservative. I don’t think that’s right. Buy-and-Hold is not, as is popularly believed, the product of disinterested research. It is the product of ideology. To […]

Six Investing Truths That Are Difficult to Believe

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1) Long-Term Stock Returns Are Highly Predictable. All the historical return data shows this. It’s been true for 140 years. But people have the hardest time believing it. No one can predict where stock prices will be next year. How the devil can it be possible to know where prices will be in 10 years […]

Stocks Are Not Risky Anymore

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Stocks are risky. Everybody knows that. Except me. I don’t believe it is so. Not anymore. My aim with this post is to explain why and see if I can persuade you that maybe I am on to something. When you buy an index fund, you are buying a share of  the productivity of the […]

The Market Has a Memory

The academics have developed two models for understanding how stock investing works. One is the Buy-and-Hold Model, rooted in the research of University of Chicago Economics Professor Eugene Fama. The other is the Valuation-Informed Indexing Model, rooted in the research of Yale University Economics Professor Robert Shiller. The Buy-and-Hold Model gets promoted heavily by Wall […]